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VITAL STATISTICS OF THE SOCIETY OF ¦RR TPNns *ivi^^o
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Note: This text has been automatically extracted via Optical Character Recognition (OCR) software. The text has not been manually corrected and should not be relied on to be an accurate representation of the item.
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N.A Umrnc Awn Etmrnjomtnw Xxi.Ouwjh.Xs, Jfactp, As* Jj Suggestions
months of their absence to take care of itself . The same remark applies in a modified sense to men who instead of employing the recess to inform themselves of the Wants and wishes of those they profess to represent , spend the whole ^ of that interval in private business or pleasure abroad , and the rash' back at' the . connnencement of the session to give their ignorant and reckless vote on the first party division . _ In a recent article the Baity News commented severely on the conduct in this respect of Lord Bury , who ., having just returned from a sojourn of several months in Canada , told his constituents that lie was ciuite unfit to tell them what he thought of
Reform ; as " his head had been too lull ot late or other matters , " alluding to the railway speculations abroad with which he has been engrossed . How , then , can Lord Bury presume to-morrow or next day to meddle at " Westminster with the mighty question which there awaits decision ? The thing is really a burlesque . But , as our contemporary justly puts it , if middle-class constituencies will throwaway their power by choosing such men for their members , they have no right to complain . As a
general rule it ought , we think , to be enacted that any member of Parliament remaining out of the kingdom for more than a given time in the course of the year should thereby vacate his seat .
Laint The Statistical Tribunal Sitting I...
laint the statistical tribunal sitting in which might be predicated b ordi-¦ Km 462 .. TAJTOAB * 29 , 1859 . 1 ^ DBE LEADER . 1 * 7 ' ~ SSSi—————™ ~ " ' i II i II ill ' 1 * h ' r . ooniipn ^ Ati xuliirVh mioT » t . V \ o nrpjMn . air . fA \ vsr sm ' ji . rit > Ai ' ~
Vital Statistics Of The Society Of ¦Rr Tpnns *Ivi^^O
comp against Lichfield House . y ,, - »« - Any one reading these two papers—that by Mr . Chadwick , whose name is a complete guarantee for laborious industry and earnestness of purpose , and the paper by Mr . Fox , who > we are told , is , in the estimation of his friends , a highly competent professional medical man enjoying a most lucrative practice—will see that the first paper ,, able , clear , full of practical discrimination , endorsed by official sanction , was put entirely out of court by a counter paper which , as far as we have seen , lias been only once recognised or quoted , and that by the British and Foreign Medical Review for July , 1844 , in not the most civil terms , in which they say : " Mr .
Neison must have a singularly dull perception not to see that his own facts are as strongly corroborative of the views he attempts to controvert as facts of the kind can possibly be . " Compliments are all very well , and may be paid to young men even , at the expense of their more experienced confreres , but it certainly cannot be permitted that papers shall be read with acclamation at the meeting of a society formed for the cultivation of that branch of study to which the paper relates , when in" the preparation of which ail true methods of investigation are ignored . It appears by the letter from Mr . Fox tliat we shall have an opportunity of seeing
his paper in print , and we may then , perhaps , more fully expose the danger to statistical science from the methods of inquiry adopted by him receiving sanction by the society . In the mean time we shall illustrate our views by quoting one or two statements noted during the reading of the paper . We formerly said that , owing to rules of discipline in the Society of Friends * of every hundred marriages fifty five take place under circumstances which deprive the persons marrying of future membership , and they and their progeny pass from under observation , ' and ail that Concerns births , deaths , and marriages ceases to be recorded in respect to them .
This is a state of things which renders the Quaker community so abnormal that ordinary modes of . comparing the results of its vital statistics are entirely inapplicable and can only lead to erroneous conclusions . During the 18 years , 1838-55 , one marriage Ser annum took place amongst every 123 persons ving in England and Wales , or , in other words , one out of every 62 of the population marries yearly . Now suppose that , as in 'the Society of Friends , upwards of one-half of all these persons should cease to come under the observation of the Registrar-General , what would be the value of his annual reports ? And yet this is the precise position in which the data from which Mr . Fox deduced the
greater part of his results are placed . At the average period of marriage mortalit y is almost at its minimum , and fecundity at its maximum power ; what other results can be expected , therefore , as the legitimate consequence of abstracting the most vital portion of the population , than that the deaths should year after year acquire an increasing ratio over the births ? The persons subject to a low rate of mortality are withdrawn from observation , and the births of the most prolific portion are not recorded . It required no statistical inquiry or evidence to disclose that fact . It is an arithmetical necessity , and the results must be foreseen by every one . The following are the actual figures furnished by Mr . Fox .
VITAL STATISTICS OF THE SOCIETY OF FRIENDS . We have been requested to insert a letter from Mr . Fox , and he is fully and fairly entitled to compliance with the demand . That gentleman seems , however , to have entirely mistaken the aim and intention of our article of the 2-ith ultimo . It was not our object or wish to deal harshly or severely with his papery or we should certainly have availed ourselves of some circumstances connected with his treatment of the subject , which"we venture to assert are without precedent in the history of the Statistical Society . . '•¦ In fact , with feelings of delicacy , and in consideration of Mr . Fox ' s first appearance in the
rooms of St . James's ^ square , we avoided" even the mention of his name , and treated the question wholly as regarded the interests of the Statistical Society itself . We viewed the proceedings of the institution as of grave public import , and of more or less interest to all the scientific bodies generally of the metropolis . . Had it simply been a question of the skill with which Mr . Fox had handled his subject we should certainly never have employed pen and paper on the result ' of . his labpurs . As , however , lie now invites criticism , we ask the -in * diligence of our readers in' making a few
observations more in detail than our former remarkswere . We can well understand the intense interest created by the reading of any such paper as that submitted by Mr , Fox when the audience seeks for amusement only , and the best evidence of this is the splendid reception given to it by the Fellows of the Statistical at a very full meeting . We can well recollect that , more than , a dozen years ago , an able and elaborate paper was read by the then great poorlaw magnate or Somerset House , Mr . Chadwick , who lias since boon decorated for his labours , and the council for the time being , including the lute
Mr . Tooke , the greatest of all economists of the present century , and Mr . Fletcher , whose death was a severe blow to the Statistical Society , permitted this very paper to be impugned by the reading of a counter paper by a mere tyro in . statistics at the following meeting , and we believe wo are correct in saying that Mr . Chadwick never appeared in the society as the author of a nnper wince that date until fast week , when ho rona an interesting paper on " Competition for the Field ; " in other words , tho ovils arising from competition by such as gas and water companies within given districts , instead of boing limited to competition for tho supply of tho districts .
This is a simple statement of thn fatal chango wlrioh has eonio ovor the Council of tho Statistical Society . Whon Mr . Tuoko and Mr . Fletcher woro taking tin aoUve part in its a ( lairs , tlicy dared to question the mothods of inquiry followed by a government odlcial of higher elul us and iufluonco in questions of publio health limn oerlninly nny one olso who sinco liis-abdioaiion has attempted to sit upon"his throno , but now wo llmi papew , thoroughly devoid of onginulity aud even of tho Ural p inoiplos of statiblioal investigation , not , only ponmttod to bo road but to bo received with favour . Mr . vlmdwiok must have serious grounils of soiontifto
NUMBER OF DEATHS TO 100 BIRTHS . 1800—9 ... Males 89 ... Females 110 1810— -19 ... Ditto 94 ... Ditto 116 1820—29 ... Ditto 10 * ... Ditto 125 1830—87 ... Ditto 106 ... Ditto 130 Had lie confined himself to that part of his subject to which he alludes in the second paragraph of his letter , wo should hayo been content to remain silent in respoot to his communication—it was , in fiver , tho only portion of his papor at nil to bo tolerated ; but instead of doing so tho greater
part of tho time of tho meeting was occupied by instituting comparisons for different periods of time bofcween the ratios of births , deaths , and marriages among tho Sooioty of Friends , and thoso which prevail in the country generally , and then another sot of comparisons , ns already pointed out , of tho ratio of deaths to births , a still i ' urlhor set of tho ratio of births to marriages , and also another sot showing tho ratios of each of those amongst males , to the results for females . AU being unscientific nncl unmeaning tests ami expressions i ' or any proper statistical purposo whatovor . As already moro than once repealed , tho results advauped as peculiar to the Sooioty of Friends had no statistical peculiarity in thorn at all , they ^ Yoro simply tho legitimate
consequences , y any nary statistician , arising out of the deeessions in the Quaker community . In our former article , in order to simplify the view then taken , of the question , we alluded to withdrawals owing to marriages against the rules of that body only , but Mr . Fox in his o \ vn letter makes our objections to his mode of treatment of still greater weight and importance , for it appears that *' other causes of separation front the society operate to a considerable extent , " placing the community in even a more abnormal condition than we had assumed , and rendering any comparison with the country generally still more absurd . Going-,
however , for the present , no further than our original view , and confining ourselves to the subject of marriages ; it will be seen that the so-called peculiar results are only consistent arithmetical sequences when separations from the society are allowed for . Taking 18 , 500 as the average Quaker population of the ten years 1840-9 , and the number of marriages the same as in the general cpmmunity-y that is , one in every 123 of the people , it will give 1500 marriages for the whole decennium ; but as 55 per cent , of these would be contracted against the rules of the body , the number of regular marriages recorded would be only 675 , and
accordingly Mr . Fox gives the actual number within the same period at 659 , and in like manner may nearlyall his other results be deduced from the normal conditions of the country . Mr . Fox may rely on it that he will act wisely by suppressing the whole of his paper , except that small portion of it referred to in the second paragraph of his letter . As a specimen of the general looseness of the manner of inquiry followed in it , one incident may be menr tioned . It became necessary to employ various tests to determine the amount of Quaker population , and the aggregate having been variously estimated for 1851 at somewhat under 16 , 000 . it was
further stated by the author in corroboration , that on the census Sunday upwards of 14 , 000 attended their places of worship . At the conclusion of the reading of the paper * some one in the meeting made a difficulty about the possibility of so many being able to attend meeting * for , if children under five years of age , the infirm and invalided , be held as absent , a very large number beyond the Quaker population , must have attended meeting , and to the surprise of every one , the reply was , " Oh ! about one-half of la of be
those persons attending the pces worship - longing to the Society of Friends have not been admitted members , and the census of course included all these- " Now this is certainly not the fashion in which papers fitting to be read at the Statistical Society should be got up * and it behoves the council to be more solicitous not only on the subjects of the papers themselves , but . also , more particularly that the methods of investigation and inquiry are such as are sanctioned by the recent advances mode rn statistical science .
( To the Editor of the Leader . ) SjtR , —My attention has only recently been called to aa article in your nuniber of the 24 th of December , headed "The Statistical Society . " It is not nay place to consider whether that Society is still in jits prime , or sinking into premature old age surrounded by a vigorous offspring ; nor dQea our excellent friend , the Registrar-General , who tells us so many home truths , need any defence from me ; but as you have misunderstood and misrepresented a paper which I had the privilege of reading before the Society , you must in fairness admit my explanation .
That any estimate of mortality is almost valueless that does not take into account the proportion of individuals living at each age , is no new discovery . It has been acted on for many years in forming statistical tables . Tho mortality for each ago in England and Wales , given in tho Ninth Annual Iteport , which I have assumed aa my standard of comparison , is calculated entirely according to this principle . The deaths at each , ngo in seven years , 1838 to 18-14 , are compared with the living of each ago nt tho middle of tho period , viz . at tho census of 18-41 . So in the table of tho mortality of tho Sooioty of Friends , which forms part of my paper , thodeaths in each ago in ton years , 1812 to 1362 , are corn ^ pared with tho enumerated mimbera living of each ngo at tho middle of tho period . The two sets of results arecomparable . To compare the total mortalities of tho two populationa-r-that of Uiu Society of . Friends and that of England and Wnlea—a further adjustment is necessary- —which I havo pointed out in my paper . Tiio assumption that an enumeration at the middle of « period represents , both in its total and in tho rolativo proportion of tho ages , the mean population of that period , ifl qviito a legitlmatq ono ; provided , first , that tho porlod bo not too long- a one ; aocondly , that tho population be HuHloiontly largo to render casual fluctuations unimportant { and thirdly , that no now sot of sociuJ circumstance * have boon devolopod to m « ko a .
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Citation
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Leader (1850-1860), Jan. 29, 1859, page 19, in the Nineteenth-Century Serials Edition (2008; 2018) ncse2.kdl.kcl.ac.uk/periodicals/l/issues/cld_29011859/page/19/
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